The most-traded cast aluminum futures contract jumped initially and then pulled back overnight, while the spot market maintained a fluctuating trend rangebound [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

June 17 SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 19,500 yuan/mt, surging rapidly after the opening bell to reach a high of 19,630 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated rangebound after pulling back, with the overall trend showing a narrow rangebound fluctuation after the initial surge. The lowest point was 19,440 yuan/mt, and it finally closed at 19,560 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt or 0.49% from the previous close. Trading volume was 6,725 lots, and open interest was 9,026 lots.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on June 16, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 605 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15 a.m.

Aluminum Scrap Market: On Monday, the spot primary aluminum price continued to decline by 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 20,630 yuan/mt, with aluminum scrap market prices showing mixed performance. Baled UBC aluminum scrap was concentratedly quoted at 15,350-15,850 yuan/mt (tax not included), while shredded aluminum tense scrap was concentratedly quoted at 15,900-17,400 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other regions closely followed aluminum price movements, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/mt. In Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Foshan, and other regions, price adjustments lagged behind aluminum price movements. After consecutive price increases following aluminum price movements last week, Monday's quotes remained unchanged from Friday, with a wait-and-see sentiment temporarily prevailing. It is expected that the aluminum scrap market will continue to fluctuate at highs.

Overseas Markets: The current CIF import price of ADC12 has slightly increased to $2,420-2,450/mt, while the import spot price remains stable at around 19,200 yuan/mt, with the immediate import loss slightly widening to 600 yuan/mt. The domestic ADC12 price in Thailand (tax not included) has temporarily stabilized at 82 Thai baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 17,097 mt on June 16, an increase of 364 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: Yesterday, the SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,630 yuan/mt, while the domestic SMM ADC12 price remained stable within the range of 19,900-20,200 yuan/mt. Although aluminum prices showed a downward trend, the raw material end of secondary aluminum remained firm, providing certain support for ADC12 prices, with market quotes generally remaining stable. Currently in the traditional off-season, new orders are growing weakly, and persistent weakness in demand is suppressing the upside room for ADC12 prices. However, cost support still exists, and it is expected that ADC12 prices will remain mainly rangebound in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

》Click to view the SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database

》Subscribe to view the historical spot prices of SMM metals